According to trade figures, the value of weapons imported into Europe rose from about €3.1 billion for the 2019–2021 period to €7.9 billion for the 2022–2024 period across the 27 member states. The US led this surge despite doubts about its capabilities.
Guntramm Wolff, Bruegel’s senior fellow, stated at the introduction of the research ‘Fit for war by 2030?’ on Friday morning that “Europe has the industrial production capacities to increase production of tanks and infantry fighting mechanisms.” He said, “The more advanced weaponry systems, where we have limited capabilities, are more concerning. Several systems have seen some growth—artillery in particular has increased significantly—but these increases are still quite minor in comparison to the total demand,” Wolff stated.
According to the paper, Europe possessed 1,627 main battle tanks in 2023, but depending on the situation, estimates indicate that 2,359 to 2,920 will be required in the upcoming years. The Patriot and SAMP/T air defence systems had stock levels of 35 in 2024, much below the 89 needed. Given Europe’s lagging defence R&D compared to its international rivals, the authors advise EU policymakers and national governments that significant investments in R&D will be crucial.
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