A bettor gained nearly half a million dollars on Venezuela’s president’s removal shortly before it was officially announced, raising concerns about whether someone profited from inside information about the US operation.
Wagers on Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-powered website, that Nicolás Maduro would be deposed by the end of January increased in the hours before President Donald Trump announced on Saturday that the Venezuelan leader had been detained.
One user, which joined the site last month and took four positions, all on Venezuela, earned more than $436,000 (£322,000) on a $32,537 wager. It is unclear who placed the bet. The anonymous account’s blockchain identifier consisted of letters and integers. According to Polymarket statistics, traders put Maduro’s exit probabilities at just 6.5% on Friday afternoon, January 2.
However, the chances had risen to 11% shortly before midnight and skyrocketed in the early hours of 3 January, showing a dramatic shift in attitudes immediately before Trump announced on Truth Social that Maduro was in US custody. Polymarket did not immediately reply to a request for comment.
Dennis Kelleher, CEO of Better Markets, a nonpartisan organization that works for financial reform, told the BBC’s US partner CBS, “This particular bet has all the hallmarks of a trade based on inside information.
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