Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer was invited to an informal conference of EU leaders in early 2025. Since the tense days of the Brexit discussions, the UK has never received an invitation like this. Future security and defense cooperation will be the main topic of the February summit. The world’s instability, as seen from Europe, serves as the backdrop. Wars rage in Europe and the Middle East, with China, North Korea, and Iran supporting Russia in its attack on Ukraine. The fact that Donald Trump is about to return to the White House only serves to increase the uncertainty that looms over our continent.
Threats serve as a reminder of common principles
The EU and the UK have been reminded of their shared principles in uncertain times by these trade income and security risks. Brexit in 2016 left the EU feeling vulnerable. It meant losing its only major military strength outside of France, as well as a sizable economy. The UK is a far lesser force on the international scene now that the regulations of EU membership do not bind it. Closer to home, the Labour government has realized that fulfilling several important promises made to the British public depends on Europe.
All of these issues—economic, defense, migration, etc.—have a European component, which makes EU ties crucial to the overall government agenda. “Europe is linked to the things that will make this government successful,” says Mark Leonard, European Council on Foreign Relations director. An “ambitious reset” of EU-UK relations has been a recurring pledge made by Labour. Since its victory in the summer general election, there has been much shuttle diplomacy and symbolism. The prime minister stopped by Brussels to meet with EU Commission Chief Ursula von der Leyen, Chancellor Rachel Reeves spoke at a summit of EU finance ministers, and Foreign Secretary David Lammy attended a meeting of EU foreign ministers.
In Brussels, there is goodwill but also Skepticism
Could the UK government grant some freedom of movement in return for financial gains from EU trade? Ahead of the commencement of bilateral negotiations, several high-ranking diplomats and political people from the UK and EU member states spoke to me on condition of anonymity. The summit is scheduled for the spring. The enormous amount of goodwill” in the EU toward the new Labour administration, with its frequently expressed reset” enthusiasm, was something I kept hearing about. However, if the Labour administration wants noticeable outcomes, it would be wise to pay attention to the distinct tone of Brussels scepticism.
The headspace is present. “Europeans are eager for closer ties with the UK,” an EU official said me. What London truly wants and what compromises it is prepared to make to achieve it are less obvious. The important thing is that it doesn’t seem to have been bottomed out in London yet.
Security and defence: a Mutually Beneficial Partnership
The mentioned defense and security cooperation is the “low-hanging fruit” regarding an EU-UK reset. Formalizing what is already happening is comparatively simple. For instance, cooperation regarding Russia sanctions and discussions about military and defense capabilities, as well as how to best protect Europe from cyberattacks and attacks on critical installations like energy infrastructure in the North Sea, are already occurring within NATO.
Furthermore, there is no plan to impose legal force on a defense treaty. The Labour government does not need to be concerned about being perceived as trying to “roll back Brexit” by the political opposition or people in the UK who voted to leave. Additionally, this possible charge is delicate. On the economy and commerce, however, Labour has also pledged to “make Brexit work” and “tear down” the trade restrictions that Brexit created. According to the Office for Budget Responsibility, Brexit will ultimately cost the UK economy 4% of GDP. It’s not as simple as it may seem, but that’s what Labour wants to avoid.
